With the new export figures announced by the finance ministry, experts and analysts weigh in on why there is growth and give an overview on Uganda’s economy outlook, write Sarah Nabakooza and Lydia Labanya.
Uganda’s merchandise export earnings saw a significant boost in February 2025, growing by 32.3% compared to the same period last year.
According to the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development’s March 2025 Performance of the Economy Report, exports rose to $843.05m (about sh3.1 trillion), up from $637.16m (about sh2.3 trillion) in February 2024, largely driven by strong performance in agricultural exports, particularly coffee, cocoa and tobacco.
Coffee maintained its position as Uganda’s top export, with earnings more than doubling to $167.68m (sh614b), compared to $82.56m (sh302b) in February 2024. This growth was driven by both an increase in international coffee prices and higher export volumes.
The number of 60kg bags of coffee exported rose to 555,756 in February 2025 from 434,582 bags in February 2024. Cocoa also registered an increase, with export receipts jumping by 164.4% to $68.7m (sh252b), compared to $25.98m (sh95b) in February 2024.
Tobacco exports likewise recorded a substantial rise, increasing nearly sixfold from $2.89m (sh10.6b) to $17.05m (sh62b) over the same period.
David Kasura Kyomukama, the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, attributed the surge in coffee and cocoa export earnings to targeted government interventions and sustained sector support.
“We are seeing the impact of deliberate programmes under the coffee roadmap, including support for seedlings, extension services and farmer training. The Government’s investment in quality assurance and market access under the Agricultural Value Chain Development Strategy is also bearing fruit,” he said.
Kyomukama added that cocoa, too, has emerged as a silent performer whose potential is now being unlocked.
“We have prioritised value crops like cocoa because of their high return on investment and growing demand worldwide. As the figures show, Uganda is positioning itself as a major player not just in coffee but also in other high-value crops,” he emphasised.
Rose Kayondo Nakayenga, the chief executive officer of Zigoti Coffee Works (ZICOFE), a major coffee exporter based in Mityana, said: “We’re finally seeing the rewards of investing in quality. At ZICOFE, we’ve worked closely with smallholder farmers to improve post-harvest handling and processing. This kind of performance gives us confidence to scale further. The international market is responding well to our speciality and commercial-grade coffee.”
She noted that better market access and consistent price benchmarks have encouraged producers to prioritise quality, which has translated into better prices and volumes.
“With increased volumes and favourable global prices, it’s now up to us exporters to continue building reliable supply chains and ensure farmers benefit from this upward trend,” Nakayenga added.
Other notable commodities that contributed to the growth registered for export earnings included gold, fish and simsim.
In spite of the growth in exports last year, there was a 1.9% decline in exports in February 2025 compared to the $859.22m (sh3 trillion) earned in January 2025.
This was due to declines in exports of gold (down by 1.6%), maize (down by 49.9%), sugar (down by 45.6%) and fish (down by 12.4%).
Kyomukama noted: “If you are talking about formal exports, yes, they have reduced. But I can tell you informally that people are still coming here for Ugandan maize, where we have two advantages.
One, we have a low cost of production because we don’t rely heavily on fertiliser. So, our maize is always cheaper than maize in the region.
“Two, and more importantly, is that in Uganda, we don’t control maize prices, unlike in neighbouring countries. That makes our maize more attractive to traders. The truth of the matter is, maize is still going and in much the same or even more quantities than before.”
However, Kyomukama acknowledged that geopolitical instability has affected some key export destinations.
“We were taking a lot of maize to the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan. Now, you know what is happening in those countries. Same with fish; we were taking a lot of fish to South Sudan. If you look very carefully, you’ll also find a slight reduction in the formal trade in beef. Again, because a lot of our beef was destined for those markets,” he explained.
Inflation reduces During March 2025, inflation remained below the Bank of Uganda’s target of 5%. Annual headline inflation declined to 3.4% in March 2025 from 3.7% in February 2025.
This decline was mainly attributed to annual core inflation, which dropped to 3.6% in March 2025 from 3.9% in February 2025. The easing in inflation was driven by a reduction in both services and other goods inflation, which fell to 4.9% and 2.6%, from 5.4% and 2.7%, respectively.
In contrast to February 2025, when annual inflation for food crops and related items rose to 4.3%, March 2025 registered a notable reduction to 3.1%.
This easing was largely due to the lifting of supply-side constraints that had previously driven up prices for staple food items such as matooke, tomatoes, avocado, apples, pumpkins, onions, Irish and sweet potatoes, cowpeas, milk, as well as dry beans.
Henry Musasizi, the general duties finance state minister, said: “We are optimistic about meeting our 6.4% GDP growth target this financial year, and inflation remains under control, where food production remains central to this achievement.”
“With improved food availability and stable prices, inflationary pressures have been kept in check. Government initiatives like the Parish Development Model and Emyooga have played a critical role in boosting productivity.”
Kyomukama added: “Inflation tends to rise when food prices soar, but we are currently enjoying good harvests, quality produce, and consistent market supply. This has helped to maintain price stability across the country.”
On Beverages
The moderation in price increases was most notable in processed goods such as maize flour, purified waragi, energy drinks, imported beer, garments for adults and children and second-hand vehicles.
Services, including domestic flights, motor vehicle servicing and hotel and lodging services, also saw slower price growth during the period.
Emmanuel Njuki, the legal and corporate affairs lead at Nile Breweries Limited, attributed the price stability in part to efforts by players in the beverages industry.
“As players in the beer sector who also import beer brands such as Budweiser and Stella Artois, and as a company that has recently started distributing Red Bull energy drinks, we work towards ensuring stable prices for all our products. This ensures stable consumption, sales and contribution to government revenue.”
