The coffee export industry continues to break records, with March 2025 seeing a dramatic rise in both volume and revenue, driven by global supply shortages and a spike in international demand.
According to data from the agriculture ministry, Uganda exported a total of 642,981 60kg bags of coffee in March, generating $198.62m (about sh727b).
The average price per kilogramme stood at $5.15 (about sh18,824), marking a steady rise from $5.03 (about sh18,401) in February and a significant leap from $3.27 (about sh11,956) in March 2024.
This represented a 92.19% increase in export quantity and a remarkable 202.52% rise in earnings compared to the same month last year.
Farm-gate prices for March also remained competitive, with robusta kiboko averaging sh7,600 per kilogramme, fair average quality (FAQ) robusta at sh15,250, Arabica parchment at sh15,000 and drugar at sh14,500.
Steady annual growth
For the year ending March 2025, Uganda exported 6.87 million bags of coffee worth $1.84b (about sh6.73 trillion).
This was up from 5.99 million bags valued at $999.48m (about sh3.66 trillion) in the previous 12-month period. This translates to a 14.86% growth in quantity and an 84.12% rise in export value.
Notably, 68% of Uganda’s coffee exports were handled by 10 leading exporters among 80 active companies in March, slightly down from 71% in February.
The highest price was fetched by Mt Elgon A+, which traded at $8.18 per kilogramme (about sh29,921), setting a benchmark for premium quality coffee in international markets.
“The strong performance of Uganda’s coffee exports (in trade volumes and earnings), can largely be attributed to supply shortages in major producers like Brazil and Vietnam, coupled with a surge in global demand,” Uganda Coffee Federation CEO Martin Maraka said.
Bernard Sabiti, an expert from Besmark Coffee Company, said global forecasts of reduced coffee production, particularly in Brazil, due to insufficient rainfall and a shortfall in robusta supplies from Vietnam, could trigger another spike in international prices.
Global Futures performance
According to market data, the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange closed with 93.10% of earlier daily losses intact.
The July position closed at $5,126 (about sh18,758,508 per tonne), down by $243 (about sh889,794), while the September position settled at $5,081 (about sh18,592,198 per tonne), losing $235 (about sh860,830) from the previous close.
Similarly, the New York coffee market mirrored this downward trend, closing with 87.74% of its earlier losses retained.
On the International Commodity Exchange (ICE), Arabica futures saw a drop triggered by anticipated increases in US import tariffs.
This comes from warnings from global coffee buyers such as Starbucks, Hershey and Mondelez International, who argue that the proposed baseline 10% tariff will push prices up and reduce demand.
At ICE, the July position closed at US cents 384.65 (about sh14,087) per pound, a drop of US cents 16.10 (about sh588), while the September position closed at US cents 377.50 (about sh13,822) per pound, down by US cents 15.85 (about sh579).
Outlook
While global market volatility and impending tariff hikes may pose challenges, experts said Uganda’s coffee sector continues to demonstrate resilience and strong international competitiveness.
When asked whether US President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff on Ugandan goods, including coffee, would negatively impact Uganda’s coffee sector, Maraka responded: “Not significantly. If the tariffs were imposed by Europe, it would be a different story, that would cripple us.”
