Uganda, Africa’s leading Robusta coffee exporter, is currently grappling with a dip in farm gate coffee prices—a ripple effect from the global market that has left many local farmers anxious.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) has moved swiftly to address public concerns, explaining that the situation is driven not by local inefficiencies or policy, but by broader international market dynamics.
In a detailed press brief issued on July 8, 2025, the Minister of Agriculture, Frank K. Tumwebaze, attributed the price decline to shifting global supply-demand trends, currency fluctuations, and speculative trading in coffee futures.
“The high prices we experienced in the last two years were unsustainable in the long run. Global markets are normalizing due to increased production in Brazil and Vietnam,” Tumwebaze said.
According to the Ministry’s June 27 market report, farm gate prices for Robusta FAQ now range between sh10,000–11,000 per kilogram (approx. $2.60–2.86), while Robusta Kiboko sells between sh5,000–5,500 ($1.30–1.43).
Arabica parchment is trading between sh14,000–15,000 ($3.64–3.90), and Drugar coffee (clean) is steady at sh14,000 ($3.64). These figures represent a clear downturn from the record highs witnessed during the peak years of 2023 and 2024.
Global market dynamics driving price decline
Coffee, like oil and other globally traded commodities, is heavily influenced by market speculation, production forecasts, and supply chain conditions.
Minister Tumwebaze explained that coffee futures contracts—standardised agreements to buy or sell coffee at a future date—are central to how prices are determined on international exchanges such as ICE Futures in New York (for Arabica) and LIFFE in London (for Robusta).
“Coffee prices are dictated by complex global interactions. From weather conditions in Brazil to the weakening Euro or US Dollar, these all play a part,” he emphasized.

The Minister cited several reasons for the current market slump.
Improved Weather in Brazil: After seasons of drought, Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is now seeing good weather and higher yields. Forecasts project Brazil’s coffee output to hit 65 million bags in 2025/26, a 0.5% increase.
Vietnamese Surge: Vietnam, a leading Robusta producer, has significantly increased its exports, boosting global supply and placing downward pressure on prices.
Currency Volatility: Fluctuations in the US dollar have made coffee exports less profitable in some markets.
Rising Supply: Global coffee production is forecasted to reach 178.7 million bags, up 4.3 million from the previous year, according to the USDA.
Investor Speculation: As with any commodity, speculative trading has driven price volatility. On June 17, 2025, ICE Coffee Futures reached their lowest point since January.
Experts urge calm and strategic action
Despite the turbulence, coffee experts remain cautiously optimistic and are encouraging Ugandan farmers to stay the course.
Martin Maraka, Chief Executive Officer of the Uganda Coffee Federation, said the decline was expected following the rebound of Brazil and Vietnam, but emphasised that the threat of climate change still hangs over the sector.
“Yes, the big players have bounced back, but the threat of climate change is still real. Ugandan farmers need more volume than before to benefit from economies of scale,” Maraka said.
He advised that instead of panicking, farmers should optimise production, invest in climate-resilient practices, and leverage Uganda’s unique competitive advantage: its coffee’s distinct aroma and flavour profile, which continues to earn premium recognition globally.
Echoing this sentiment, Dr. Michael Mugabira, a seasoned coffee farmer and agribusiness analyst, likened the coffee industry to the oil sector.
“Coffee is a commodity like oil, so price fluctuations are inevitable. But just like oil, coffee always rebounds. Even during slumps, the sector earns and sustains livelihoods,” said Dr. Mugabira.
He added that Uganda enjoys a natural competitive edge because of its unique terroir and coffee varieties, particularly in Arabica highland regions and Robusta lowlands.
“Farmers should continue maintaining and expanding their coffee fields. The key is quality. Uganda’s coffee aroma gives us an edge globally,” Mugabira noted.
Uganda’s exports up
Despite the price slump, Uganda’s coffee industry is far from faltering. The Minister revealed that exports between June 2024 and May 2025 hit 7.43 million bags worth $2.09 billion, up from 6.08 million bags worth $1.08 billion in the previous period.
This represents a 22% increase in quantity and an impressive 93.6% increase in value—a testament to Uganda’s increasing role in global coffee trade and the positive impact of improved post-harvest handling and value addition.
The graph of average annual export prices tells a fluctuating but ultimately upward story, with prices swinging from $1.53/kg in 2020/21 to a high of $3.11/kg in recent months.
“These figures show our resilience and positioning. Uganda is now ranked as the third highest quality coffee producer globally by the Coffee Quality Institute (CQI),” Tumwebaze proudly stated.
A glimmer of hope
The Minister assured farmers that prices are likely to improve slightly from mid-July to late August as the global harvest season winds down.
With Brazil’s peak season ending in early July and the Robusta harvest in Vietnam and India concluding by mid-July, market oversupply will begin to ease, creating room for price stabilization or moderate recovery.
“This is the time for patience and preparation. Let’s invest in quality, post-harvest handling, and even consider adding value through roasting and branding,” Tumwebaze advised.
He urged coffee farmers to maintain discipline in picking only ripe berries, ensuring proper drying and processing, and using good storage methods to preserve quality.
Policy and institutional support
The Ministry reiterated that the government remains committed to supporting farmers through the National Coffee Act, increased extension services, and stronger collaboration with key stakeholders such as the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) and the Uganda Coffee Federation.
“This price drop is temporary. Our policies are sound and focused on transforming coffee from a cash crop into a sustainable wealth creator,” Tumwebaze asserted.
According to Dr Mugabira, while the global coffee market will always be prone to external shocks and speculation, Uganda’s coffee sector remains buoyant.
He said the current dip, while painful, is not unprecedented—and certainly not permanent.
“Uganda’s coffee journey is not ending. This is simply one bend on a long road. And as we’ve seen before, after every dip comes a peak,” concluded Dr. Mugabira.