A video of a farmer cutting down a coffee shamba over a reduction in prices went viral last week.
However, experts and veteran players in the sector advise against such drastic actions. They say the reduction in coffee prices cannot hurt farmers and the enterprise is still profitable.
“Even if coffee prices were to reduce by more than half of the current prices, a farmer will still make a profit because they cannot go below the cost of production,” Joseph Nkandu says.
Nkandu, the executive director of National Union of Coffee Agribusiness and Farmers (NUCAFE), has been involved in the coffee sector for over 30 years.
He was one of the winners of Vision Group’s Best Farmer competition last year and a coffee trainer during the annual Harvest Money Expo.
He said, based on his experience, coffee is perhaps the most price-stable cash crop in the country, with a ready market.
Concurring with Nkandu, the Katikkiro of Buganda, Charles Peter Mayiga, said price fluctuation is not a reason for farmers to stop cultivating the crop.
“You should not be swayed by the slight fluctuations in prices. Coffee trees are long-lasting sources of income, supported by minimal investments. If prices drop this year, they go up the next year,” he said.
In recent years, Mayiga has led a coffee farming campaign in recent years in the kingdom.
Current prices
According to the market analysis report from the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries, as of June 27, at the farm gate, Robusta (kase) was going for sh10,000-sh11,000, while Robusta (kiboko) ranges between sh5,000 and sh5,500.
Arabica (parchment) is trading at sh14,000-sh15,000, while Drugar coffee (clean) is being sold at sh14,000- sh14,000. This was down from sh13,000 for Robusta (FAQ or Kase) in April.
A check on the coffee prices screen board at Coffee House on July 19, indicated similar prices.
According to agriculture minister Frank Tumwebaze, the high prices observed over the past two years were due to various factors, including: increased global demand, adverse weather conditions affecting production and rising costs in the supply chain.
Dry spells, floods and extreme temperatures in key coffee-growing countries, such as Brazil and Vietnam, also negatively impacted yields, reducing the quantity of the crop on the international market.
This situation affected mostly Robusta coffee, increasing its demand globally, thus the high prices farmers and other value chain actors have enjoyed, until recently, were a result of these negative effects in other countries. This begs the question of why there has been a decline in the global coffee prices.
The crop is traded globally at the coffee stock exchange. Arabica coffee is traded on the Intercontinental Exchange Futures in New York, while Robusta is traded on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange.
The crop is traded through future contracts, which are agreements to buy or sell a specific quantity of coffee at a predetermined price at a future date.
These contracts allow coffee producers and traders to hedge against price fluctuations, ensuring economic stability. Investors also use futures contracts to speculate on coffee prices. Like any stock or commodity traded on the stock exchange, coffee prices fluctuate, depending on various factors, such as climatic conditions, market forces and transport difficulties.
Tumwebaze pointed out that the coffee prices over the past few weeks have dropped due to global market forces rather than Government policies.
Demand for coffee is high
According to the US Department of Agriculture, World Markets and Trade Report – June 2025, the world coffee production for 2025/26 is forecasted to be 4.3 million bags, higher than the previous year.
It is anticipated to reach a record 178.7 million, due to continued recovery in Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as record output in Ethiopia. World coffee bean exports are forecasted to be 700,000 bags higher, reaching 122.3 million.
Add value to coffee
Rather than selling kiboko or unshelled coffee, Nkandu advises that all farmers must strive to sell parchment (kase) because it earns more.
“It is important to note that the higher the value chain, the higher the earnings. So, as farmers, let us stop selling raw coffee. Let us sell the partially processed or fully processed one,” Nkandu, who exports coffee to Europe, says.
Factfile good practices
- Farmers should pick only ripe cherries, dry immediately after harvesting on clean mats, tarpaulins, racks or concrete floors.
- The first step in value addition is hulling, done with hullers. The hulled coffee should be placed on a clean surface.
- Coffee should be dried on the concrete floor, rack, tarpaulin, mats or on a raised floor. Ensure that the moisture content doesn’t go beyond 10.5%-13.5% for kiboko and parchment (kase).
- For storage, pallets on concrete floors are recommended. In addition, the floor should be free of dust and contamination.
Market
Tumwebaze explained that price fluctuations are not new.
Over the past 10 years, average coffee export prices have been fluctuating between $1.53 (sh6,000) and $3.11 (sh14,000 ) per kilogramme, with Financial Year 2020/21 recording the lowest price of $1.53/kg.
“Although, currently prices are anticipated to continue declining globally in the months to come, our coffee industry is on track,” he says.
According to the report, Uganda exported 7.43 million bags worth $2.09b for the year June 2024 to May 2025, compared to 6.08 million bags worth $1.08b for the year (June 2023 — May 2024).
This represents an increase of 22% and 93.6% in quantity and value, respectively.
